It's time to prognosticate. After months of going back and forth, watching 2023 tape and crunching the numbers, I'm putting my commitments down on digital paper. Over the next two days, I'll make my annual selections for the NFL teams most likely to improve and most likely to decline in 2024. I'll focus on the positive side of the ledger below before hitting the teams on the decline side Tuesday.
I've been doing some version of this feature in picking specific teams to improve and decline for ESPN going back through the 2017 season. Over that time frame, the results have been pretty good! Twenty-seven of the 33 teams I've picked to improve in this space have come through and produced better win-loss records than they had in the prior season. Those teams have improved by an average of 3.3 wins per 17 games. (Much of the data for this column dates back as far as 1989, which means a lot of weird numbers after adjusting for the 17-game slate.)
More: Barnwell picks five teams likely to decline
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Last year's column went 4-0. The Browns and Rams were two teams that took unexpected trips to the postseason, while the Broncos and Bears nearly doubled their combined win total. The four teams went from a combined record of 20-48 in 2022 to 36-32 last season.
So, with five teams to get to, let's get started. It's time to reunite with an old friend who has served us well in previous years:
Jump to a team that ...
... has been in this column four times recently
... had a sneaky-great defense last season
... should get much better quarterback play
... added major improvements at wide receiver
... had terrible luck when facing QBs last season
Los Angeles Chargers
Record in 2023: 5-12
Point differential in 2022: minus-52
2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-8
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: Second easiest in the league
For those of you who have been reading for a while, you're probably not surprised to see the Chargers appear in one of these columns. They showed up on the improve side in 2017, when they jumped from 5-11 to 9-7. There was still more juice left to be squeezed, though, and they were back on the improve side again in 2018, when they improved to 13-3. They ran a little hot, though, and were bumped to the decline side of the column in 2019, falling back down to 5-11 in the process. That was too far, so they were back on the improve side once more in 2020, where they made a modest climb to a 7-10 record. In four appearances, they've gone the way we hoped four times.
I'm inclined to think they'll make it 5-for-5 this season because there's no more obvious candidate to improve this season by the measures we use. We'll start with the simple one: The Chargers weren't as bad as they seemed a year ago. Even as they allowed approximately a billion points on defense in the December loss to the Raiders that cost Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco their jobs, they were competitive for the vast majority of the season.
They were outscored by only about three points per game, which is usually associated with a better record than 5-12. From 1989 to 2022, there were 54 teams that were outscored by between 2.5 and 3.5 points per game. Those teams won an average of 6.99 games per 17. That's right in line with what the Pythagorean expectation suggests for the Chargers; they had the point differential of a seven-win team. The only teams that got worse results from that sort of performance out of that sample were the 1991 and 2005 Packers, both of whom improved dramatically the following season.
If you watched the Chargers in 2023 -- or any year, really -- you know their games tend to come down to nail-biters and often end with frustrating, inexplicable defeats. Last season was an intensely acute version of that phenomenon, as they went 3-8 in games decided by seven or fewer points. (I use seven points as the line for one-score games because it allows for comparisons with teams that played in an era without two-point conversions, as well as the fact that teams can theoretically win a seven-point game with one possession but can't do so in a game where they trail by eight.)
Want to relive some of those losses? Let's go through them:
In the opener, the Chargers led the Dolphins 31-30 with four minutes to go and had a third-and-5 from Miami's 7-yard line but couldn't convert and kicked a field goal. The Dolphins then drove the length of the field, with Tyreek Hill turning a third-and-10 into a 47-yard completion, and scored a touchdown to take a 36-34 lead that held up.
The following week, the Chargers blew another lead with 2:22 to go, aided by a roughing the passer call on Kenneth Murray. Justin Herbert drove them into the red zone, only for a third-down sack to force them to settle for a field goal that tied the score. L.A. won the coin toss and went three-and-out, and the Titans drove downfield for a game-winning field goal.
In Week 5, the Chargers tied up the game with the Cowboys with 7:15 to go on a fourth-and-goal conversion and were seemingly about to get the ball back, but they committed a pair of penalties on third-and-18 that gave Dallas a first down. The Cowboys then ran nearly four more minutes off the clock before kicking the game-winning field goal.
Facing the Lions in a game in which both teams converted multiple fourth-down tries, the Chargers tied it up with 3:42 to go, immediately allowed a 41-yard completion on a blown coverage and then couldn't stop Detroit from converting a third-and-14 over two plays, setting up another field goal.
The following week, the Chargers took another lead with 5:43 to go against the Packers, but this time, an Asante Samuel Jr. pass interference penalty on third-and-20 extended a Green Bay drive that eventually produced a game-winning touchdown.
In Week 16, without Herbert or Staley, the Chargers took a 22-21 lead with 5:30 to go and couldn't hold it, as the Bills marched down the field for another game-winning field goal.
In Week 18, facing a Chiefs team resting its starters, Los Angeles again took the lead inside the final five minutes and then blew it when Blaine Gabbert scrambled for 25 yards on a third-and-7, helping to set up another soul-crushing field goal.
Those are four games in which the Chargers had leads over eventual playoff teams in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter and two more in which they were tied and about to get the ball back if they could hold up on a third-and-long. The only other team across the past decade to lose five games it led inside the final five minutes in a season was the 2015 Giants, who went 6-10. Even other Chargers teams aren't this bad.
The Chargers were not without luck or close victories -- they came up with an interception in the end zone in Week 3 with 15 seconds left to beat the Vikings -- but their close games typically went the wrong way. This is a classic indicator for teams that typically improve the following season.
In the past, maybe we could blame Staley's late-game management for whatever woes the Chargers had in terms of closing out narrow games. I'm not sure I agree, but regardless, things should be better this season. Jim Harbaugh went 17-7 in games decided by seven or fewer points during his time with the 49ers (2011-2014). I don't believe his true talent level in winning close games is north of 70%, but the evidence we have so far suggests he isn't going to hold L.A. back late in games.
Harbaugh's broader coaching acumen and ability to turn things around quickly seems relevant here, too. He took over a 49ers team that hadn't posted a winning season in eight years and jumped it from 6-10 to 13-3 in his first season at the helm, bringing San Francisco within a couple of muffed punts of the Super Bowl. At Michigan, Harbaugh inherited a five-win team with one 10-win season in eight years; he immediately took his alma mater to double-digit victories in his first season.
With Harbaugh and Herbert, the Chargers have arguably the two most important positions in their organization filled with high-upside solutions. I'm optimistic about the offseason they just had, especially in terms of improving at the line of scrimmage by drafting Joe Alt in the top 10. Many of the big names who left the organization -- Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Corey Linsley, Eric Kendricks and Murray -- were players who were either battling injuries a year ago or who saw their play slip dramatically as they got past their peak. I'm not enthused about this group of playmakers, but if L.A. gets off to a hot start, it should be able to add via trade at the deadline.
That hot start might be driven by an easy schedule. The Chargers begin with the Raiders, Panthers and Steelers. Then, after a game against the Chiefs, they get the Broncos and Cardinals. Injuries have already raised fears about whether they will be able to hit the ground running, but I wouldn't be surprised if they started 4-2 and immediately emerged as a team worth noticing. I think the Chargers will be a playoff team in 2024.
New England Patriots
Record in 2023: 4-13
Point differential in 2022: minus-130
2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-8
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: Toughest in the league
It hasn't exactly been an auspicious preseason for the Patriots. After failing to come to terms with Matthew Judon on an extension, they traded their top pass rusher to the Falcons for a third-round pick. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who was signed to a four-year, $92 million extension this offseason, is battling blood clots and has no timetable for his return. And Drake Maye, the team's top pick and quarterback of the future, has spent training camp working with the second team, raising concerns he might not be ready to immediately jump into the starting lineup.
Are there still reasons to be optimistic about the Pats? I think so. There's not likely to be a Texans-style turnaround coming unless Maye immediately rights the ship, but there are more reasons to feel good about New England than it seems. I'd be more excited about the team potentially pushing for a playoff berth if Judon and Barmore were around, but the Pats should be able to improve on last season's 4-13 performance.
Let's start with the defense, because what the Pats did in the second half in 2023 is one of the most underreported performances of last season. From Week 10 onward, the Patriots -- not the Chiefs, not the Ravens, not the Jets -- were the best defense in football. They allowed 1.3 points per drive and minus-0.12 expected points added (EPA) per play, both of which were tops in the NFL. Although defenses can have a hot stretch by forcing wildly high turnover rates -- as the Bears did over that same second half -- the Pats created turnovers on 7% of opposing drives, which was the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
The context for that performance only makes things more impressive. The Patriots spent that entire stretch without Judon and promising rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez, both of whom went down early with season-ending injuries. They also inherited dismal starting field position from their offense, with the average opposing drive starting on their own 34-yard line. That was the league's worst mark and the third worst inherited field position any defense has had to endure in the second half of a season over the past decade.
That performance also came in what amounted to a lame-duck end in New England for Bill Belichick, who undoubtedly played a huge role in coaxing dominant play out of that defense. He's no longer with the organization, and it's tough to imagine anyone is going to be as good at building a week-to-week game plan on defense as the best coach in modern NFL history.
On the other hand, new coach Jerod Mayo played for Belichick and has spent the past five years on Belichick's staff as a defensive assistant. If anyone should have insight into what Belichick was doing on that side of the ball, shouldn't it be Mayo? I'm not sure the Patriots will have the league's best defense in 2024, especially with Barmore's status uncertain, but this should still be a unit capable of landing in the top 10.
And then, on offense, this team can't really be much worse, can it? There's no Brandon Aiyuk in terms of offensive upgrades, but there are new additions who should help give the offense some life, including second-round wideout Ja'lynn Polk and running back Antonio Gibson. The offensive line is still a work in progress and doesn't have a plug-and-play left tackle, but it should be deeper than it was last season.
Most importantly, the Patriots made what likely will be major upgrades at quarterback. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe exhibited virtually no upside or ability to push the ball downfield a year ago, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and completing a league-low 14 deep passes. Maye's physical tools and arm strength are simply at a different level from what New England had last season. Although he'll have hiccups and throw interceptions as he adjusts to the pro game, the Patriots were turning the ball over plenty last season, too. At least this time around they'll have upside to counter some of those giveaways.
And if Maye isn't ready, the Pats have the most qualified backup/bridge quarterback in the league in Jacoby Brissett. The journeyman passer grossly outplayed Deshaun Watson with the Browns in 2022, with a 62.0 QBR that would have ranked eighth in the league. Last season, he spent the season sitting behind Sam Howell in Washington. Given brief opportunities to play, he went 18-of-23 for 224 yards with three touchdowns, leading the Commanders all the way back from a 20-point deficit against the Jets to take a one-point lead before the defense blew the game.
Brissett's best skill is avoiding interceptions; the only quarterback who has posted a better interception rate since he entered the league is Aaron Rodgers. And for the Patriots, even if they don't immediately turn to Maye, having a quarterback who can protect the football would go a long way. The 2023 Patriots turned the ball over 29 times and posted a turnover margin of minus-11. There are versions of this team that combine a very good defense with a much higher floor (Brissett) and a much higher ceiling (Maye) than what they had at quarterback a year ago.
Acknowledging that Barmore already is a critical injury, the Patriots should also be healthier than they were. The FTN Football Almanac notes the Pats were the league's third most injured offense and its most-injured defense by its adjusted games lost metric. There's little reason to think that will happen again, which should also help.
Is there enough upside here to cobble together a playoff berth? Probably not, especially given that the Patriots are projected to play the toughest schedule in football by ESPN's FPI. Then again, who would have said that about the Texans this time a year ago? By the numbers, Houston should have made this list, given that it went 3-13-1 in 2022 with a five-win Pythagorean expectation. The Texans were upgrading from Davis Mills and Kyle Allen to a real quarterback prospect in C.J. Stroud. And because they got the quarterback decision correct, a lot of other things fell into place. If Maye's the guy the Patriots hope he's going to be as a rookie, watch out.
Washington Commanders
Record in 2023: 4-13
Point differential in 2022: minus-189
2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 3-5
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: 11th easiest in the league
The Commanders were the other team with a veteran lame-duck coach, as it was hardly a state secret that Ron Rivera wasn't going to be back in Washington in 2024. Josh Harris and the rest of Washington's new ownership group took over in July 2023, which wasn't enough time to make a change before the start of the season, but when the Commanders traded both Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline, the writing was on the proverbial wall for Rivera.
After a failed attempt to hire Ben Johnson, enter the new front office of coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters, who have stocked the cupboard for Washington in an interesting way. I'm loath to compare another bad team from 2023 to the Texans, but there are similarities beyond the fact that both chose a high-upside quarterback with the No. 2 pick in the draft.
Jayden Daniels is the player who could most dramatically propel the Commanders forward, and, as with the Texans, there are players here who could look a lot better if the quarterback play improves. We haven't seen Terry McLaurin play with even an average NFL quarterback so far. Jahan Dotson flashed as a rookie before going quiet with Howell last season. Free agent addition Austin Ekeler struggled with the Chargers in 2023, but he's one year removed from a 1,637-yard, 18-touchdown season. Second-round tight end Ben Sinnott drew pre-draft comparisons to another former Washington player in Chris Cooley. If Daniels arrives ready to go, everyone in this group will look a lot better.
In his first offseason, Peters seemed to emulate the path Nick Caserio chose to rebuild the Texans. Caserio eventually found his young core of stars in the draft, but much of the roster he built over the past few years has been around veterans on short-term deals at modest prices. Caserio didn't take a big swing for an experienced talent until he traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason, but the likes of Steven Nelson, George Fant and Devin Singletary all played meaningful roles for Houston as the franchise got better faster than anybody expected. The Texans were actually the league's fourth-oldest team by snap-weighted age in 2023.
The Commanders aren't going to be quite as old, but there was definitely an attempt to work toward the middle class and build a veteran roster this offseason. Ekeler and Zach Ertz are on modest deals, each coming in below $5 million per season. Nick Allegretti and Tyler Biadasz were signed to upgrade the interior of the offensive line. Marcus Mariota comes in as the backup to Daniels. This team isn't starting over from scratch.
Those changes are even more pronounced on defense, where the biggest addition was former Cowboys edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, who will move into a starting role. Peters added players who had looked more promising in previous years before being stuck on bad defenses a year ago, including a pair of Panthers (Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn) and former Chargers cornerback Mike Davis. Bobby Wagner, who made it back to the Pro Bowl a year ago, will be the leader on the defensive side of the ball. The edge behind Armstrong is mostly bets on former highly drafted linemen Dante Fowler and Clelin Ferrell, but there's still the strength of the defense on the interior in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.
Quinn's job will be to generate something he excelled at creating during his time in Dallas: interceptions. The Cowboys picked off a league-high 3.5% of passes during his time there, with Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland leading the NFL in interceptions during different campaigns over that three-year run. Quinn's Falcons defenses (2015-2020) weren't quite as effective at forcing turnovers -- and there's obviously a Micah Parsons-sized hole missing from the defense Quinn had in Dallas -- but the hope naturally has to be that he's able to bring some of his coverages over to Washington. Mike Sainristil, who intercepted six passes at Michigan last season, might be the best candidate in the secondary to pick off a bunch of throws.
While Quinn's defenses were forcing interceptions in Dallas, the Commanders weren't generating many of their own. Their 1.5% interception rate over the past two seasons was the worst in football, and that's an element of the game that fluctuates more randomly from season to season. If they take a surprising step forward, an increased interception rate from the defense is likely to be one of the reasons.
With Howell throwing for his life on the other side of the ball, Washington simply was overmatched in terms of protecting the football in 2023. It posted a league-worst turnover differential of minus-14, winning the turnover battle just once across its final nine games. Unsurprisingly, the Commanders went 1-8 in those games.
If you want a simple, easy way to find a team that's going to improve each year and don't want to deal with me rambling about roster construction philosophies and Pythagorean expectations, just pick the team that finished last in turnover margin. It's typically a great way to find the team that will come out of nowhere and exceed expectations. Last season, that team was the Colts, who lost their starting quarterback in September and still came within a game of the postseason:
I'm pessimistic about every other team in the NFC East, which included three franchises that were all on the short list for Tuesday's column of teams likely to decline. (I won't spoil and reveal how many of them actually made it in.) If the other teams in the division have major question marks, can Washington really be that far behind? I'm worried about Daniels' ability to stay healthy behind one of the league's least-imposing offensive lines -- and there's probably not enough of a pass rush to field a great defense -- but the Commanders should be able to push toward league-average football in Quinn's first season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Record in 2023: 11-6
Point differential in 2022: plus-77
2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-4
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: Eighth easiest in the league
In some ways, the Chiefs don't really fit on this list. The improve side of this column usually includes teams with subpar records from the previous season, since having bad luck or timing often results in teams losing lots of games. Andy Reid's team had a perfectly normal record in one-score games, and its point differential would have projected it to produce 10.8 wins, which isn't far off from where it ended up in reality during the regular season.
Instead, there are other factors under the hood for Kansas City that lead me to project a jump past 11 wins this season. Since we were just talking about the Commanders and their turnover margin, let's start there. With the greatest quarterback on the planet and an elite defense, the Chiefs somehow managed to post a minus-11 turnover differential, the league's fifth-worst mark.
Patrick Mahomes & Co. actually lost the turnover battle in nine of their 17 games, going 4-5 in those matchups. As a subtraction wizard, I can tell you they managed a 7-1 record in the games in which they tied or won the turnover battle. They lost the turnover battle only once during their four playoff games, with that coming in their narrow road win over the Bills when Mecole Hardman fumbled away a would-be touchdown.
With Mahomes under center, losing the turnover battle hadn't been a regular occurrence. Between 2018 and 2022, the Chiefs trailed their opponents in turnover margin 26 times, the fourth-lowest rate for any team, and one that amounts to about five games per season. They went 15-11 in those games, which is a testament to how they can overcome mistakes, but they were 15-5 when they tied the opposing team in turnovers and a whopping 34-2 when they posted a superior turnover margin. I don't see any reason to believe Kansas City is going to be as likely to lose the turnover battle as it was a year ago, and that should bump up its record in the process.
Some of that was bad luck. While holding on to the football and forcing fumbles are skills, what happens once the ball hits the ground is mostly a crapshoot. There were 43 fumbles in Chiefs games last season, and they managed to recover just 18 of those. That's a recovery rate below 42%, which was the fourth lowest of any team. Again, fortunes changed in the postseason: Kansas City recovered 13 of 18 fumbles, good for a 72.2% clip.
Then there were those drops. Sometimes those led to turnovers, and the turnovers led to defeats: Kadarius Toney's drop in the opening game against the Lions turned what should have been a completion into a pick-six for rookie safety Brian Branch. Chiefs wideouts posted a 7.8% drop rate during the regular season, the worst rate for any team's wideouts in any season over the past decade. Compared with every other wide receivers room from every other team over that stretch, Kansas City's drop rate was 3.5 standard deviations above the mean. The receivers were scandalously bad.
And yet, during the postseason, things were better! Those same wideouts dropped just 3% of the passes thrown in their direction, which was exactly the league average during the playoffs. Even given that the Chiefs weren't exactly loaded at wide receiver, that sort of drop rate was never going to keep reoccurring, and once it fell back to earth, they looked much better on offense.
The 2024 team should be better at wide receiver, even with Marquise Brown already sidelined by a shoulder injury. Rashee Rice will be entering his second season after impressing across 622 snaps a year ago, and first-round pick Xavier Worthy should be a higher-ceiling option than the departed Marquez Valdes-Scantling. There should be fewer snaps in the big picture for Toney, Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross, who might not be much better than replacement level.
The added speed should help restore a deep passing attack that went absolutely silent last season. Mahomes had ranked in the top 11 in deep passing QBR each of his first five seasons as Kansas City's starter. He fell to 27th in 2023. The only quarterback with a worse completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on deep throws was Mac Jones. If you think Mahomes' true talent level on deep throws is right alongside that of Sam Howell and Bryce Young, well, I'm inclined to disagree.
The offense should be better. And although the defense won't have cornerback L'Jarius Sneed after he was traded to the Titans, the Chiefs had the league's second-youngest unit a year ago and ranked fifth in the NFL in EPA allowed per play. Even if the Sneed-less secondary takes a step backward, improvements on offense and better fumble luck should help Kansas City push toward the top seed in the AFC.
Arizona Cardinals
Record in 2023: 4-13
Point differential in 2022: minus-125
2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 2-5
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: 14th toughest in the league
Is it just as simple as counting on Kyler Murray? The Cardinals were 1-8 with Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback a year ago, and once Murray returned from a torn ACL, they went 3-5. It's always dangerous to count on a quarterback to play 17 games, but projecting Murray to play more than eight seems like a fair bet. And if that happens, Arizona should be better.
There's more to it than that, though. The Jets are going to improve with a full season of Aaron Rodgers, but there's not much fun or insight in just pointing out teams that are going to get more than four snaps from their starting quarterback. The Cardinals need more than that to make it into this list.
Well, what about the quarterbacks the Cardinals faced? One of the things I've started tracking in recent years is how often teams face the opposing team's top quarterback. That usually means the Week 1 starter, but that's not always the case. For Arizona, as an example, I considered Murray to be the team's top quarterback, even though he missed more than half the season.
The average NFL team faced the opposing team's No. 1 passer on about 73% of dropbacks in 2023. If it felt as if teams were struggling with quarterbacks, well, they were; the average rate between 2002 and 2022 was closer to 78%. The low over that time frame was 2007, when defenses faced top passers just 67% of the time. Still, 2023 was definitely a season in which a lot of defenses got to face second- and third-stringers more often than they would have expected.
That didn't extend to the Cardinals. Their defense faced No. 1 quarterbacks just under 93% of the time, which was comfortably the highest mark in football. No other team was over 85%. Jonathan Gannon's defense got half a game against Mitchell Trubisky, half a game against Taylor Heinicke and four garbage-time snaps from Sam Darnold and Davis Mills. That's it.
Teams can't control whether the opposing quarterback shows up to the game healthy, obviously, so there's no way the Cardinals should expect to face top passers that often again. And when teams don't have to deal with that, they usually improve. When we look at franchises from 2002 to 2022 that had to deal with No. 1 quarterbacks more than 90% of the time, they had to face those passers only an average of 78% of the time the following season, the league-average rate.
Their defenses and win totals also improved. They allowed an average of 21 fewer points the following season. Their records improved by an average of 1.3 wins per 17 contests. For an Arizona team that ranked 31st in scoring defense, any improvement it can get on that side of the ball would help.
The personnel should be improved in Gannon's second season, although losing BJ Ojulari to a torn ACL before the season even began limits the ceiling. There are new big bodies up front in Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols and first-round pick Darius Robinson, all of whom should help a team that allowed 2.9 yards before first contact, the fourth-highest rate in the league. A cornerbacks room that had been among the league's worst for nearly a half-decade finally has some capital invested at the position with veteran addition Sean Murphy-Bunting, second-year corner Garrett Williams and Day 2 picks Max Melton and Elijah Jones. This team is still a couple of edge rushers short of being able to challenge for above-average status, but it isn't Budda Baker, Kyzir White and praying that somebody in pass protection slips on the defensive side of the ball again.
Gannon was hardly conservative as a rookie coach. He went for it on fourth down at the highest rate of any coach in the league, which should help the Cardinals in close games once their defense improves. Arizona went 2-5 in one-score games last season. One of those was a game against the Ravens in which a late field goal only pretended to make things competitive, but the Cardinals held late leads on the Commanders, Giants and Seahawks and lost all three games. They lost to the Texans by five in a game in which they held Houston to 21 points, only for a late Murray drive to come up short. Gannon is going to need to figure out how to stop the 49ers and Rams, who dropped 137 points on the Cardinals across four games, but even getting to adequate would be a major upgrade.
And then, yes, Murray should help fill in some of the gaps on offense. The Cardinals ranked 28th in EPA per play on offense before he returned to the lineup, then improved all the way to 10th by the same metric after Murray recovered. They did that with an offense where the top wide receivers were Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch, as Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson were injured for stretches in the second half.
Brown is gone, but he's been replaced by what might be the second coming of Larry Fitzgerald in Marvin Harrison Jr. We've seen how quickly Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have adapted to the league after leaving Ohio State, and Harrison is regarded as a better prospect than either. He fundamentally changes how teams can defend Arizona, and that should only open up more opportunities for everyone else in the offense.
The more subtle improvements might be up front, where Paris Johnson Jr. will move from right tackle to his natural position at left tackle, while Jonah Williams was signed away from the Bengals to step in on the right side. On paper, this is the best line the Cardinals have had in several years. If they can protect Murray and the defense does take a step forward, they could find themselves on the fringes of the wild-card race in the NFC.