EDITOR'S NOTE: This story was originally published on Sept. 14. All stats are now updated through the 2024 season. Sale is a finalist to win the Cy Young Award on Wednesday night.
Chris Sale's pitching career has endured more twists and turns than his famous unorthodox delivery.
From 2012 to 2018, Sale -- first with the Chicago White Sox and then, following a trade, with the Boston Red Sox -- was one of the best starting pitchers in the majors, receiving Cy Young votes each season (although never finishing first). He looked like a future Hall of Famer, even helping Boston to a World Series title in 2018. Since then, though, a series of injuries over the next five seasons seemed to sidetrack his career.
Until this year. In a 2024 resurgence with the Atlanta Braves, Sale went 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts. He led the National League in wins, ERA and K's to become the first pitcher to win the Triple Crown since Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw did it in 2011, with his Cy Young-favorite counterpart, Tarik Skubal, doing the same in the American League. Sale joined Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton as the only left-handers with at least eight 200-strikeout seasons and was crucial in helping the Braves make the playoffs this year after Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider went down for the season in April.
There's also this: Sale's tremendous season might have put him back on a Hall of Fame path.
What makes Sale's Hall of Fame case so unique
Sale might be the best active pitcher who has never won the Cy Young Award. He ranks 27th all time in Cy Young award shares, a number Bill James created that calculates the percentage of points a player received for a particular award. (For example, a unanimous win is worth 1.00 award share; if a player receives 50% of the total points possible, that's 0.50 award shares.) Only Adam Wainwright ranks higher among pitchers who have never won the award; half of the pitchers above Sale are in the Hall of Fame -- with several others on their way, including Verlander, Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
That's how dominant Sale was at his peak. For a short time in the summer of 2018, he reached a level of excellence few pitchers ever have. In nine starts from June 8 to July 27 that season, he gave up five runs in 60 innings, good for a 0.75 ERA. He struck out 97 -- reaching double figures in strikeouts in seven of those nine starts, and nine in the other two -- and didn't give up a home run. Batters hit .153 against him. His final pitch of one June start was the hardest of his career: 101.5 mph.
Then it was over. He went down a few weeks later because of a sore shoulder. While he managed to return for Boston's playoff run, his velocity was down and he had to skip his Game 5 start in the World Series, although he came on in the ninth inning to get the final three outs to clinch the title.
A long list of ailments followed: A sore elbow cut his 2019 season short. Tommy John surgery in spring 2020 wiped out nearly two full seasons. In 2022, he made only two starts because of a stress fracture in his rib, a broken finger and then a broken wrist suffered while riding his bike. In 2023, he went on the 60-day injured list because of a stress reaction in his scapula.
This offseason, the Red Sox, understandably frustrated with the injuries and looking to cut payroll, traded Sale to the Braves, who wanted to acquire more starting pitching depth after having seen its powerhouse 2023 team enter the playoffs with a bruised and battered rotation. Anthopoulos then tore up Sale's existing contract, replacing his 2025 club option with a new three-year, $54 million extension that includes a 2026 team option. It was one of the best moves of the offseason.
Sale, now 35 years old, has proven he can still sling it. Given his injuries, though, it really is a minor miracle he's pitching at this level. Only four pitchers have returned from a major arm injury to win a Cy Young Award:
Verlander had Tommy John surgery after one start in 2020, sat out all of 2021 and then won his third career Cy Young in 2022.
Jacob deGrom had TJ surgery in the minor leagues before winning two Cy Youngs with the Mets.
Chris Carpenter had two surgeries on his labrum and sat out the 2003 season but returned to win the Cy Young with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2005.
Jim Palmer had shoulder problems as a young pitcher and sat out the 1968 season but made it back to win three Cy Young Awards.
Certainly, there have been other pitchers who returned from injuries to pitch at a high level, including Luis Tiant and Tommy John himself. But none after missing as much time over as many seasons as Sale, who made only 31 total starts from 2020 to 2023.
Who does Sale compare to?
Sale's career could still take a few different paths, so let's compare him with a few other pitchers, starting with two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, a modern era pitcher with similar career numbers to Sale:
Sale: 138-83, 3.04 ERA, 1,958 ⅓ IP, 2,414 SO, 53.4 WAR
Santana: 139-78, 3.20 ERA, 2,025 IP, 1,988 SO, 51.7 WAR
Santana didn't even make it to a second ballot, so that suggests Sale has a lot of work to do. On the other hand, Santana is not only an extreme example of a relatively short career with a tremendous peak, but he entered the ballot in 2018 -- a crowded one that now includes nine players who have been elected to the Hall of Fame, plus other strong candidates including Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Curt Schilling. Scott Rolen finished 17th on that ballot but has since made it. With the 10-player maximum rule, there simply wasn't room for most voters to put Santana on their ballots, even if they otherwise wanted to.
Though Santana's career ended abruptly after a shoulder injury, Sale has rejuvenated his and still could have a number of excellent seasons ahead of him.
Two other pitchers currently on the Hall of Fame ballot are Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle:
Pettitte: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3316 IP, 2448 SO, 60.7 WAR
Buehrle: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 3283 IP, 1870 SO, 59.1 WAR
Both crossed the 200-win mark and have around 60 career WAR -- the line many voters look at for strong consideration -- but both received less than 15% of the vote on last year's ballot.
That's because both are widely considered "compilers" -- very good pitchers who lasted a long time, but weren't necessarily considered among the best in the game, as has been the case with Sale.
There's a good way to look at this: Rather than using wins above replacement, we can use wins above average, which looks at a player's contribution compared to the average major leaguer. Wins above average addresses Sale's peak value -- especially when compared to pitchers like Pettitte or Buerhle:
Sale: 35.2 WAA
Pettitte: 29.8 WAA
Buerhle: 29.3 WAA
Sale ranks 28th among pitchers since World War II in WAA -- higher than ... oh, Nolan Ryan, Jim Palmer, Sandy Koufax or Juan Marichal.
Also higher than CC Sabathia, who is on the ballot for the first time this winter and many believe will be elected (if not on his first attempt, then soon enough). He finished his career 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA and 61.8 WAR (he had an additional 0.5 WAR as a hitter). But Sale trumps him in WAA, 35.2 to 28.3.
To look at peak value another way, let's isolate Sabathia's peak years and compare that stretch to Sale's career so far:
Sabathia, 2004-2012: 148-77, 3.32 ERA, 1,976 IP, 1,753 SO, 43.2 WAR
Sale: 138-83, 3.04 ERA, 1,958 ⅓ IP, 2,414 SO, 53.4 WAR
(Rest of Sabathia's career: 103-84, 1,601 IP, 1,340 SO, 4.25 ERA, 19.5 WAR)
Sale compares favorably to the best years of Sabathia: a lower ERA, a lower adjusted ERA (140 ERA+ to 131), more strikeouts and significantly more WAR. Sabathia factored into the Cy Young voting only five times in his career (with one win); Sale is headed for his eighth season with Cy Young votes (and likely first win).
Now, Sabathia obviously had a lot more volume over the rest of his career -- 103 wins, nearly 20 WAR and 1,600 innings. Over his final seven seasons, though, he went 60-59 with a 4.33 ERA and an ERA+ of 97 -- below league average. If you want to focus on greatness, Sale measures up.
Hall of Famer voters have traditionally appreciated the longevity of a career like Sabathia's, but voters have focused on peak value a little more in recent years -- at least with position players such as Todd Helton and Joe Mauer, or Scott Rolen and Larry Walker, players who might not have measured up as sure Hall of Famers based on traditional counting statistics but were elected because of a high level of performance in their best seasons.
So does that make Sale a Hall of Famer?
Sale might look like a Hall of Fame long shot by conventional markers, but his current 53.4 career WAR puts him in reach of 60 -- the bar for consideration we mentioned above. The 200-win barrier perhaps remains a hurdle: Koufax is the only post-World War II starter elected with fewer than 200 wins. But that total has been slowly creeping downward, anyway -- Pedro Martinez made it with 219 wins, John Smoltz with 213 and Roy Halladay with 203.
Of course, every Hall of Fame case is different. Two hundred wins doesn't guarantee enshrinement, and neither does a prolonged peak. It took the clearly qualified Mike Mussina (270 wins, 82.8 WAR) six ballots to be elected. Others from recent decades who had strong peaks but fell short in Hall voting include Kevin Brown (216 wins. 67.8 WAR, 40.2 WAA, no Cy Youngs), David Cone (194 wins, 62.3 WAR, 35.5 WAA, one Cy Young) and Bret Saberhagen (167 wins, 58.9 WAR, 36.6 WAA, two Cy Youngs).
Brown's lack of support might point to how important it is for Sale to win the Cy Young this season -- it might change the perception of his career to refer to him as a Cy Young winner. But, maybe most importantly, voters will have to realize the game has changed: Starters don't pitch as often, don't pitch as many innings and don't pick up as many victories as a result.
Verlander might eventually get to the old standard of 300 wins -- but he's at only 262 and had a 5.48 ERA this past season at 41 years old. The only other active pitchers with at least 200 wins are Scherzer and Kershaw, and then you drop all the way down to Gerrit Cole with 153. Sale is tied for seventh on the active list -- and the No. 9 guy (Kyle Gibson) has only 112. The standards to elect starting pitchers should change -- and reward pitchers such as Sale who dominated the era in which they pitched.
I don't think Sale's a Hall of Famer quite yet -- but he's getting close. And capturing his first Cy Young Award this year will certainly help.