Welcome to the MLB offseason! It's time to rank the top players in the 2024-25 free agent class and project how much money they'll get this winter.
Let's start with a quick rundown of what you need to know about these rankings and projections because you'll likely scroll immediately to the players and return here when you have a question.
For simplicity, the players are ranked in the order of their projected guaranteed contracts -- with the exception of Japanese ace Roki Sasaki (whose contract will be limited to international bonus pools if he, as expected, comes over this winter). The contract projections throughout are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the goal is to predict what will happen -- not what I think the players are worth.
Starting with (spoiler alert) Juan Soto at No. 1, many of the top free agents in this class are represented by agent Scott Boras. I have Boras projected to do $1.717 billion in contracts this winter. That is 47.3% of the total of $3.627 billion worth of guarantees I've projected to be handed out this winter.
(For reference, I projected $3.182 billion of guarantees last winter, and my math says $3.051 billion was handed out. I also took Michael Wacha's recent deal out of this winter's projections, but I'm off to a good start, projecting three years, $52.5 million when he signed for $51 million over the same term.)
Buzz around the industry is cautiously optimistic that spending will be up, meaning relative to expectations, helping fuel my projections as I strive to be close to as accurate as I was last winter. On to the projections!
1. Juan Soto, OF
2024 Team: New York Yankees
2025 Opening Day Age: 26
Projected Contract: 13 years, $611 million ($47M average annual value)
Soto is a generational free agent at the top of this class, and I've written a ton about his potential contract. I solicited predictions from 28 industry insiders in June, ranked him atop the whole free agent class in August and collected predictions from 15 industry insiders last week, helping to shape that projected total guarantee of $611 million.
This will be the biggest contract Scott Boras has ever negotiated, blowing Bryce Harper's $330 million deal from 2019 out of the water. I think the numbers to beat for Boras/Soto are the deferral-adjusted (aka NPV) total and yearly average (AAV) from Shohei Ohtani's deal: $460.8 million and $46.08 million. From there, it seems that maximizing the top-line number will be the primary goal, with deferring money or adding years the tools for that. If things don't get to the numbers Boras is expecting, adding opt-outs will be the tool to use. I would not be surprised if Soto gets a heavily deferred contract totaling more than $700 million in nominal value, but there's also a chance a bidding war doesn't materialize and it ends up under $600 million. It comes down to how aggressive the Yankees, Mets and other potential suitors want to be for the clear headliner of the winter, or if they see a combination of the below alternatives more attractive.
2. Roki Sasaki, RHP
2024 Team: Chiba Lotte Marines
2025 Opening Day Age: 23
Projected Contract: $5 million (signing bonus in a minor league deal)
With indications pointing to Sasaki joining this year's class, we'll include him here as he immediately would be among the most sought-after players available. Given the rules in place for players coming over from Japan before they turn 25 years old, it doesn't make any financial sense for him to get his club to post him this year because, like Shohei Ohtani, he would be limited to the international bonus pools that are all under $8 million; if he comes after Dec. 15, the pools reset and he could get as much as $7 million or so, but if he comes before he'll be limited to roughly $2.5 million at most.
Coincidentally, the team with that roughly $2.5 million remaining in its pool, the most in baseball, is the Dodgers: They are heavily favored to land Sasaki just as they landed Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason. There are some complicating factors for the Dodgers this time, though: Some scouts think Sasaki would prefer a smaller market, and his velocity was down this year, leading some to believe he's nursing an injury. But teams would be bidding on all of the traditional peak years of a pitcher who has been elite for years. That's easily worth $200 million to almost any team, but he'll come at a giant discount. That gambit paid off for Ohtani and could also pay off for Sasaki, or he could wait two offseasons and get a big payday up front, like Yamamoto did.
3. Corbin Burnes, RHP
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 7 years, $225 million ($32.1M AAV)
Burnes is the top free agent pitcher with MLB experience on the market and comes with the normal concerns most high-end free agent starters offer: He's already 30 years old, and a team will have to guarantee him at least five years. Burnes will get paid because he has been durable (28 to 33 starts each of the past four years), throws strikes at an elite rate, still has a strong (but declining) strikeout rate, and throws with velocity that is still climbing (career high 95.3 mph average on his cutter, 97.0 mph on his sinker in 2024) with stuff grades to match.
This is a typical deal in which the team that signs him will be hoping to win the first half of the contract, ideally with deep playoff runs and a ring, then wishing for health on the back half of the contract -- but Burnes does appear to be aging better than the average nine-figure pitcher. He's widely expected to clear $200 million with Stephen Strasburg's $245 million deal, which included significant deferrals, before the 2020 season (also represented by Scott Boras, like Burnes is) as the stretch goal. Surpassing that mark would give Burnes the third-biggest pitcher guarantee ever (behind Gerrit Cole and Yamamoto).
4. Willy Adames, SS
2024 Team: Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 7 years, $189 million ($27M AAV)
On the heels of a strong 2024 season in Milwaukee, Adames has floated to the top of this position player group with Alex Bregman just behind him. Adames is about a year and a half younger than Bregman and also offers more defensive value and in-game power. I'd expect something like the Marcus Semien deal (seven years, $175 million before the 2022 season) adjusted for inflation for both of them, even though neither player is an exact comp to the Texas infielder on the field.
There wasn't a real everyday shortstop in last year's free agent class, so Adames is the first true shortstop to hit the market since the 2022-23 bonanza that included Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. Interest in Adames will be high because he can fit into a lot of situations, whether it is staying at shortstop or moving to third base for a team already set at the position.
5. Alex Bregman, 3B
2024 Team: Houston Astros
2025 Opening Day Age: 31
Projected Contract: 6 years, $187 million ($31.2M AAV)
Bregman seems to be a primary target of the Astros and Washington Nationals (a very widely rumored landing spot for him) -- two teams that tend to be aggressive and not worry about models when chasing their targets. Will Bregman get more with a narrower market than shortstop Willy Adames will while having three or four times as many teams engaged? Bregman has posted three straight 4-to-5 WAR seasons with a wide base of skills, though he hasn't topped 26 homers since 2019 and plays a corner position.
6. Max Fried, LHP
2024 Team: Atlanta Braves
2025 Opening Day Age: 31
Projected Contract: 6 years, $175 million ($29.2M AAV)
It seems like Fried should be able to beat the Carlos Rodon contract (six years, $162 million before 2023) and come in right around the seven-year, $172 million deal Aaron Nola got to return to the Philadelphia Phillies last winter. Fried isn't quite as durable as Corbin Burnes, but his velocity has remained at career-high levels into his early 30s, and he has made 12 career playoff starts in addition to his strong regular-season numbers.
7. Pete Alonso, 1B
2024 Team: New York Mets
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 6 years, $159 million ($26.5M AAV)
There are teams that see the basic facts on Alonso -- a first baseman who is about to turn 30, adds almost no baserunning or defensive value, is coming off a career-low power output in 2024 -- and just say no thanks. They won't pay whatever the market rate because of what history says about this free agent demographic. But there are plenty of other teams that like Alonso as a player in the $100 million to $125 million range but wouldn't give him the deals that first basemen Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130 million) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million) signed recently.
Alonso has reportedly turned down multiple nine-figure offers from the Mets, with the highest being seven years, $158 million. He made $20.5 million last season, so six years and $137.5 million this winter would match that, and I think Alonso and agent Scott Boras can make that happen. I'm rounding up a bit with my projection because there's a shot Mets owner Steve Cohen tells his front office to resign Alonso regardless of the price and this projected figure allows him to save face after a big postseason performance. But this number is not where the vast majority of the league values him, and there's also a shot the Mets balk at the price and look at the other power hitters on the market.
8. Blake Snell, LHP
2024 Team: San Francisco Giants
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 4 years, $124 million ($31M AAV)
Coming off his second Cy Young Award last winter, Snell didn't land the nine-figure contract many projected. He instead ended up signing a two-year, $62 million deal in March, started slow, then caught fire and opted out of that pillow contract. Now, a year later, the industry assumes Snell and his agent, Scott Boras, will find a nine-figure deal.
Similar to Alonso, there are plenty of teams that like Snell as a player but just don't want to give him a long-term deal, preferring to guarantee a few years with opt-outs instead. I think a high AAV contract offer for three years definitely exists for his services, maybe for over $100 million, so I'll predict that a four-year deal is where negotiations land, to get an extra year and lower the AAV for competitive balance tax purposes. After he remained on the market into spring training last offseason, I don't think Snell and Boras will let this play out that late again, as that would open the risk of either not getting perceived market value or starting the season slow again.
9. Jack Flaherty, RHP
2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 5 years, $115 million ($23M AAV)
Flaherty's 2024 performance was much more in line with the strong start to his career than his 2023 struggles before hitting free agency last winter. In short, he improved his fastball shape, used it in the zone more to get ahead, then threw more breaking balls out of the zone for chases. It sounds simple, but baseball can be simple. Flaherty is younger than the other elite starters on the market but has just one recent season of this level of performance along with merely average fastball velocity (93.4 mph), so his longer-term prospects are more as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter than potential ace, thus the lower projected AAV than Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell -- but still on a five-year deal.
10. Sean Manaea, LHP
2024 Team: New York Mets
2025 Opening Day Age: 33
Projected Contract: 4 years, $86 million ($21.5M AAV)
Manaea is older than the starting pitchers ahead of him, but something happened in 2024 to help him finally break through to what was expected of him when he went in the first round in 2013. His success this season was fueled by lowering his arm slot and moving to the extreme first-base side of the rubber to make his sinker play better while enhancing the crossfire elements of his delivery against left-handed hitters. Manaea will turn 33 in February, and that likely caps the ceiling of his contract, but he looked like a No. 2 starter after his adjustments, so I think he will get four or five years at a roughly $20 million per year rate.
11. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
2024 Team: Houston Astros
2025 Opening Day Age: 33
Projected Contract: 4 years, $76 million ($19M AAV)
Kikuchi had a blazing-hot second half after being traded from the Toronto Blue Jays to the Astros at the deadline. His standout performance in Houston was fueled by a spiking strikeout rate that was in part caused by steadily increasing fastball velocity. Those are good signs for his longevity combined with consecutive 32-start seasons that show his durability, so I have him landing a four-year deal.
12. Anthony Santander, OF
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 3 years, $69 million ($23M AAV)
Santander went from a 2016 Rule 5 pick of Baltimore to hitting 155 homers for the Birds, 44 of them last season en route to a career-high 3.3 WAR. He has a slight edge at the top of the second tier of corner-only bats, just ahead of Teoscar Hernandez, and Christian Walker (not a bat-only guy, as he recently won his third straight Gold Glove).
Santander is two years younger than Hernandez, who is one spot after Santander on this list, and is a slightly better defender, while Hernandez is a better hitter. I think they'll end up with very similar contracts, though Santander has a better chance to land a fourth year because of his age.
13. Teoscar Hernandez, OF
2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $66 million ($22M AAV)
After signing a one-year contract coming off a down year in Seattle, Hernandez helped his stock with a strong rebound campaign with the World Series champion Dodgers. His age and limited defensive value will likely limit the length of his deal, so a three-year deal with an AAV in the range of the $23.5 million he got last winter seems about right.
14. Nick Pivetta, RHP
2024 Team: Boston Red Sox
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $63 million ($21M AAV)
Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi have separated a bit as a second tier of starting pitchers, followed by a third tier that begins with Pivetta and also includes Luis Severino, Shane Bieber, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Martinez (all in the top 25 in these rankings).
Pivetta has long been a scout/evaluator favorite because he seemingly has the tools to be a frontline starter, but he hasn't quite put the pieces together. Many metrics suggest he has both plus stuff and plus command, and he has logged at least 140 innings for straight four years, but he hasn't posted an ERA under 4.00 in any of his eight seasons. Organizations that excel at pitching development could look at this as a rate value opportunity in free agency, similar to the Rays signing Zach Eflin for three years, $41 million two offseasons ago before he posted 4.9 WAR in the first year of the deal.
15. Luis Severino, RHP
2024 Team: New York Mets
2025 Opening Day Age: 31
Projected Contract: 3 years, $58.5 million ($19.5M AAV)
Severino posted back-to-back five-WAR seasons as a rocket-armed young Yankees superstar before he turned 25 years old. Things went sideways from there, though, before he made good on a one-year deal with the Mets this season. He'll turn 31 in February and now profiles as a steady No. 3 starter who will likely get a three-year deal, but he could get a fourth year if a team thinks there's a little more upside left to tease out.
16. Christian Walker, 1B
2024 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Opening Day Age: 34
Projected Contract: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)
A right-handed-hitting first baseman who turns 34 in March, Walker is the type of player who used to be paid near the top of the market but the industry has downgraded for about a decade. The unique part of Walker's profile is that in addition to averaging 32 home runs over the past three seasons, he has also won three straight Gold Glove awards. So when you look at comps for his age and offensive game -- Jose Abreu (three years, $58.5 million going into his age-36 season) and Edwin Encarnacion (three years, $60 million going into his age-34 season) -- Walker could be rounded up because he offers considerably more defensive value.
17. Shane Bieber, RHP
2024 Team: Cleveland Guardians
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 3 years, $54 million ($18M AAV)
Bieber is a fascinating free agency case. He had Tommy John surgery in April after showing his best velocity and stuff since 2021 in two starts this season. A typical Tommy John rehab timeline has the pitcher back on the mound after 14 months, meaning Bieber would be a midseason addition with frontline potential, but he also comes with some unknown. Instead of spending $15 million to $20 million per year for an innings eater, many teams would prefer to gamble on a potential frontline starter if the total guarantee is under $100 million, and Bieber fits into the latter category.
Even coming off Tommy John surgery, paying Bieber roughly $10 million for 2025, then guaranteeing roughly $20 million for 2026 seems like something a number of teams would do. Adding a third year at $22 million to $25 million could help separate a team from the pack because it would be almost irrational to guarantee four years for a player still rehabbing who was trending down before two sparkling starts in 2024. Because of all that, I think a bidding war on a three-year deal is where Bieber's free agency ends up. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see some smaller-market teams, such as Tampa Bay or Milwaukee, making a somewhat out-of-character big-money play to land him given his potential upside combined with the shorter-term commitment.
18. Walker Buehler, RHP
2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 3 years, $54 million (18 AAV)
Buehler underwent some changes in his return from Tommy John surgery, likely making him more of a finesse No. 3 starter than the power-based ace he was in the past. That said, he started to find himself late in the season and into the playoffs, so taking the qualifying offer seemed like his best move: he can post a full healthy season as his new self in 2025 and hit the market with no QO attached, maybe getting close to $100 million if everything goes right. But something funny happened yesterday: the Dodgers didn't offer the QO. Now Buehler hits the market without the QO attached, but as a potential buy-low candidate for a strong pitching development team.
19. Tanner Scott, LHP
2024 Team: San Diego Padres
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 4 years, $54 million ($13.5M AAV)
Scott fits the somewhat recent trend of relievers delivering fastballs from a low launch to the top of the zone to maximize whiffs and popups while minimizing balls in play. Scott comes with some risk, as he had way-below-average command (6.6 walks per nine innings) in 2022, then broke out in a huge way in 2023 (2.31 ERA, 2.50 xERA, 2.8 BB/9). He actually regressed a bit in 2024 but still looked like a late-innings reliever. There should be lots of interest in the three-year range, so I assume he will end up on a four-year deal.
20. Gleyber Torres, 2B
2024 Team: New York Yankees
2025 Opening Day Age: 28
Projected Contract: 3 years, $52.5 million ($17.5M AAV)
If extended a qualifying offer, there is some chance Torres takes it, eyeing the chance for a bounceback year and a bigger free agency payday next winter without the QO attached. The Yankees played it safe and didn't extend the QO, so Torres can optimize for the biggest guarantee this winter. Given his age, underperforming his xwOBA (i.e neutral luck give him better numbers), and his much better second half (his strikeout rate decreased 5% and his power increased), followed by a strong postseason, it's not hard to imagine teams seeing more upside.
Torres was below league average as a baserunner, hitter and defender in his traditional peak season at age 27 this year, so getting more than $50 million, if that kind of offer presents itself, would seem smart. Seattle makes a lot of sense as a landing spot, given the Mariners' need for hitters on reasonable contracts and how they value hitting skills more than huge power.
21. Tyler O'Neill, OF
2024 Team: Boston Red Sox
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 3 years, $50 million ($16.7M AAV)
O'Neill comes in just behind the tier of corner thumpers that includes Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Christian Walker, though O'Neill is younger than all three. O'Neill is a man of extremes: He had the second-highest strikeout rate of any hitter with 450 plate appearances last season but also the fifth-best isolated slugging in the league. Those two qualities don't tend to age very well, but I think O'Neill hitting free agency before he turns 30 will allow a team to go to a third year with an annual value below $20 million.
22. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
2024 Team: Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $48 million ($16M AAV)
Hoffman is a year and a half older than Tanner Scott and right-handed, so he's likely to come in a bit below Scott in terms of total guarantee. Both have a checkered history of strike throwing until the past couple seasons, but both have been similarly good the past two years. There is some industry buzz that Hoffman's pitch mix and history as a starting pitcher have some teams thinking he could be a reliever-to-starter free agent signing like Reynaldo Lopez and Jordan Hicks were last winter. It's still more likely that he is signed as a late-inning reliever given how good he is in the role and the guarantee his performance the past two seasons will demand.
23. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
2025 Opening Day Age: 35
Projected Contract: 2 years, $45 million ($22.5M AAV)
Eovaldi has had an unusual career, teasing teams with upside in his mid-20s then having a career year at age 31. He ranked in the top 40 in both pitcher WAR and innings pitched over the past two seasons, showing reliability into his mid-30s. Eovaldi also has notably better postseason numbers than regular-season ones, so he fits well for a contender looking for a dependable No. 3 starter on a short-term deal.
24. Jurickson Profar, OF
2024 Team: San Diego Padres
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M AAV)
Profar has had some of the wildest year-to-year swings in baseball history. Here's his wRC+ (100 is a league-average hitter, 101 is 1% better) since 2017: 36, 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78, 139. He's hitting free agency at a good time considering that 139 is for the 2024 season when he posted 4.3 WAR, but Profar offers little defensively and is obviously streaky. The question is whether he gets a two-year deal at a higher AAV or something closer to the three-year deal I project. He has spent much of his major league career playing for teams that A.J. Preller works for, so there's a strong chance he returns to San Diego.
25. Ha-Seong Kim, SS
2024 Team: San Diego Padres
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 2 years, $42.1 million ($21.05M AAV)
Kim is a fascinating case to consider. He's an above-average defensive shortstop who also has been above league average as a hitter and baserunner for three straight years. At age 29, that formula equals nine figures in free agency, but Kim is coming off September shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum; he might miss time into the 2025 season, but that isn't clear yet. Because his status for the start of the 2025 season is in doubt, a one-year deal and even the qualifying offer might not make sense, but it doesn't seem likely that the five-plus years, nine-figure guaranteed offers expected before the 2024 season will come this winter, either. Kim recently hired Scott Boras to represent him, so this is seeming like it'll last until late in the winter as the prognosis for his shoulder becomes clearer, and something like double the qualifying offer with an opt-out is a reasonable landing spot.
26. Nick Martinez, RHP
2024 Team: Cincinnati Reds
2025 Opening Day Age: 34
Projected Contract: 2 years, $40 million ($20M AAV)
Martinez signed a two-year, $26 million deal last winter and opted out after a breakthrough 2024 season: 142⅓ innings, 3.10 ERA with matching peripherals. He is now in the bucket of quality bulk-innings veteran starters (who can also excel in various bullpen roles) who could either receive a high AAV for two years (as I've projected) or a lower one on a three-year deal.
27. Carlos Estevez, RHP
2024 Team: Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $36 million ($12M AAV)
Estevez (along with Tanner Scott) was one of the two high-profile rental relievers traded for top prospects at the deadline. Estevez is a bit older, right-handed and doesn't rack up strikeouts like Scott. He fits more in a setup role, as someone who can close if needed. This is a type of reliever most teams are looking to add in the offseason, so there should be a lot of interest in Estevez since Scott and Hoffman will likely secure bigger guarantees that limit their suitors.
28. Matthew Boyd, LHP
2024 Team: Cleveland Guardians
2025 Opening Day Age: 34
Projected Contract: 2 years, $33 million ($16.5M AAV)
Boyd made only eight starts this season but they were excellent, as were his three postseason starts. He isn't that young, doesn't throw very hard and hasn't thrown 80 innings in a season since 2019, but the pieces are still here to see Boyd on the verge of a breakout season next year, and that means the bidding will bring his contract to a second year.
29. Clay Holmes, RHP
2024 Team: New York Yankees
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $33 million ($11M AAV)
Holmes had a lot to gain in the playoffs, as he was awful down the stretch -- 12 IP, 9 K, 7 BB, 4.50 ERA in his last 15 appearances -- but was the 10th-best reliever in the sport until then. He was solid in October and now seems in line for a multiyear deal to be a setup man.
30. Max Kepler, OF
2024 Team: Minnesota Twins
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M AAV)
Kepler will be 32 in February and had a bad walk year -- (slightly) below average at the plate and on the bases while playing a corner-outfield spot -- but there are still teams that think 2024 was an outlier and he's closer to his 2023 self. I think there's multi-year interest on the promise that he could be above average in all phases once again.
31. Andrew Heaney, LHP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
2025 Opening Day Age: 33
Projected Contract: 3 years, $28 million ($9.3M AAV)
Heaney joins Martinez and Boyd as valuable innings-eaters who have shown swing-and-miss stuff in spurts along with the ability to pitch in multiple roles, making them something like the Ben Zobrists of pitchers. Heaney could get an eight-figure AAV on a two-year deal or push for a bigger total guarantee on a three-year deal.
32. Kenley Jansen, RHP
2024 Team: Boston Red Sox
2025 Opening Day Age: 37
Projected Contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M AAV)
Jansen may just throw low-90s cutters around the zone in the late innings until the sun explodes and if that annoys you, you should step in the box and try to hit it because he's been good since he started pitching professionally 16 years ago. Jansen signed a two-year, $32 million deal before the 2023 season and the drop-off likely won't be too steep from that this time around.
33. Kirby Yates, RHP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
2025 Opening Day Age: 38
Projected Contract: 2 years, $24 million ($12M AAV)
Yates is another reliever still dealing in his late-30s. He had a career year in 2024 (1.17 ERA, 1.81 xERA in 61.2 UP), out of line with almost every other season of his career. He posted those numbers on a one-year, $4.5 million deal and should cash in this winter.
34. Frankie Montas, RHP
2024 Team: Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 2 years, $24 million ($12M AAV)
Montas' 150.2 innings in 2024 marked just the third time in his career he has thrown 100-plus innings. He has some seasons of No. 3 starter quality in his past, so the right organization/coach could sign him with hopes of teasing that back out.
35. Blake Treinen, RHP
2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Opening Day Age: 36
Projected Contract: 2 years, $23 million ($11.5M AAV)
Treinen is on the older side and has dealt with injury issues over the years, but he still has a hellacious slider and has been near untouchable since 2020. I'd expect him to return to the Dodgers on a one- or two-year deal.
36. Trevor Williams, RHP
2024 Team: Washington Nationals
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M AAV)
Williams found success this year throwing his upper-80s fastballs the least often of his career, instead leaning on his slider and changeup. Like Matt Boyd, there isn't a long track record of throwing hard or throwing 100-plus innings, but even a coin-flip chance at being a good innings-eater with a shot of providing a season of No. 3 starter value for the team that signs him means a multi-year deal in this market.
37. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
2024 Team: St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Opening Day Age: 37
Projected Contract: 1 year, $18 million
It also made some sense for Goldschmidt to accept the qualifying offer if the Cardinals offered it, but they didn't. As a 37-year-old first baseman, he wasn't going to get a long-term deal even with a huge 2024 performance but there are some signs that Goldschmidt's mediocre 2024 isn't a harbinger of a bad 2025. His wOBA (all-encompassing hitting metric) was .310 last season, but his expected wOBA (based on how hard he hit the ball, launch angles, etc.) was much higher at .333. On top of that, he made a real improvement in the second half, cutting his strikeout rate from 28% to 24% and improving his isolated power from .143 to .210.
Those second-half numbers are in line with his recent three-to-five WAR seasons, which would mean landing him at near a QO level on a one-year deal could be a nice value for a club unless he starts showing his age in underlying and surface numbers in 2025.
38. Carson Kelly, C
2024 Team: Detroit Tigers
2025 Opening Day Age: 30
Projected Contract: 2 years, $17.5 million ($8.75M AAV)
Kelly showed this season he has the elements for above-league-average hitting (he fell 1% short this year, but was hit unlucky) and is already a solid-average defender at catcher. He's a slightly speculative candidate for a multiyear deal as it requires believing better ball in play luck and regular playing time will reveal a clear everyday catcher from someone who has shown that ability at times in the past.
39. Hye-seong Kim, SS
2024 Team: Kiwoom Heroes (KBO)
2025 Opening Day Age: 26
Projected Contract: 3 years, $16.5 million ($5.5M AAV)
Kim has excelled defensively at both middle-infield spots in the KBO as a lefty hitter who turns 26 in January. While he doesn't hit for much power, he posts high contact rates and is a good runner who has stolen 20-plus bases every season. You could imagine teams seeing him as a potential low-end regular who will be a good utility guy even if they miss on the hitting evaluation. Bidding on his peak years is a gamble teams will be willing to take since the domestic version of that player isn't available via free agency.
40. Michael Conforto, OF
2024 Team: San Francisco Giants
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 1 year, $15 million
Conforto will get more attention than his surface stats -- .237 with 20 home runs and 66 RBI -- might suggest, as the more predictive xWOBA statistic says there was 25 points of unluckiness in his outcomes. Conforto's isolated power also reached .212 last season, his best since 2019, with a shoulder surgery in 2022 mixed in, suggesting he may be on the verge of regaining his mid-20s form in at least some sense in 2025.
41. Joc Pederson, OF
2024 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 1 year, $15 million
It seems like Pederson is around this area on my free agent list every winter, but like Profar, he has also been pinballing around the wRC+ board (since 2021): 96, 144, 109, 151. Pederson turns 33 in April but his hitting figures are cresting up. His defensive value is as low as usual, but this time it's because he only DH'd last season.
42. Max Scherzer, RHP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
2025 Opening Day Age: 40
Projected Contract: 1 years, $13.5 million
He's not the same pitcher he once was, obviously, and made only nine starts in 2024, but he was No. 3 starter good and will still be terrifying to face in tense moments since there's always the lingering possibility he turns into a werewolf. Scherzer should land a premium AAV on a one-year deal.
43. Carlos Santana, 1B
2024 Team: Minnesota Twins
2025 Opening Day Age: 39
Projected Contract: 1 year, $13 million
Like Pederson, Santana is in this general area of seemingly every free agent list, moving up or down and getting one vs. multi-year deals depending on last season's performance. Santana performed, posting a 114 wRC+ and adding career-best defensive metrics at first base, so he could be an alternative for the teams that lose out on Christian Walker.
44. Spencer Turnbull, RHP
2024 Team: Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Opening Day Age: 32
Projected Contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)
Turnbull is another pitcher with a whiff of Zach Eflin to him as a potential strong value free agent. He seemingly turned the corner this season, with a strong 54.1 innings in the first half that was derailed by a lat issue. He cut his fastball/sinker use and spiked his slider used by 16%, so he could become a bulk-inning No. 3 or No. 4 starter who can also play multiple roles, which (if Turnbull can stay healthy) is something every team in baseball would like to have.
45. Yimi Garcia, RHP
2024 Team: Seattle Mariners
2025 Opening Day Age: 34
Projected Contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV)
It still hasn't been reported how serious Garcia's season-ending elbow injury was, so this is somewhat speculative as the total or years could change with more information. Before being traded by Toronto at the deadline, Garcia's velo and most of his other stats were at career-best levels.
46. Yoan Moncada, 3B
2024 Team: Chicago White Sox
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 1 year, $12.5 million
Moncada is still in his 20s and posted a 3.7 WAR season in 2021, but has only shown his immense potential in a couple seasons with streaky performance and/or injury holding him back. The White Sox declined a $25 million club option, but I'd expect some interest at a number roughly half that size.
47. Justin Verlander, RHP
2024 Team: Houston Astros
2025 Opening Day Age: 42
Projected Contract: 1 years, $12.5 million
Verlander and Scherzer have been tied together for most of their careers, most recently when both were traded from a salary-dumping Mets club at the 2023 deadline. Like Scherzer a few spots above him on this list, Verlander didn't post his normal bulk innings this season but flashed No. 3 to No. 4 starter quality at times, so there's likely a good bit of interest in seeing what he has left.
48. J.D. Martinez, DH
2024 Team: New York Mets
2025 Opening Day Age: 37
Projected Contract: 1 years, $12.5 million
The march of former All-Stars that still have something left continues. Martinez had 38 points of hit-unluckiness in his 2024 wOBA with the Mets which, if taken out, suggest he's still hitting at the same level as he was three or four seasons ago. He seems likely to get another deal comparable to last winter's $12 million guarantee.
49. Danny Jansen, C
2024 Team: Red Sox
2025 Opening Day Age: 29
Projected Contract: 2 years, $12 million ($6M AAV)
Jansen had a down contact year, hitting just .206 with 9 home runs, but had three solid seasons both offensively and defensively before this. He fits as the slightly younger and more affordable version of Carson Kelly for teams looking for a younger answer at catcher; Jansen could also take a one-year deal with hopes of rebounding and cashing in next winter.
50. David Robertson, RHP
2024 Team: Texas Rangers
2025 Opening Day Age: 39
Projected Contract: 1 year, $11.5 million
Robertson is another perennial free agent rankings standard but one of the few players who represents himself as his own agent. He signed for $11.5 million last winter and was almost exactly as good in 2024 as he was in 2023, so I think he'll find a team that'll give him the same terms.
Others of Note
C: Travis d'Arnaud, Yasmani Grandal, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sanchez, James McCann, Austin Hedges, Reese McGuire, Elias Diaz, Max Stassi, Tomas Nido, Luke Maile, Austin Wynns, Omar Narvaez, Curt Casali
1B/DH: Justin Turner, Josh Bell, Garrett Cooper, Anthony Rizzo, Ty France, J.D. Davis, Yuli Gurriel, Rowdy Tellez, Dan Vogelbach, Jose Abreu
2B: Jorge Polanco, Enrique Hernandez, Donovan Solano, Whit Merrifield, Thairo Estrada, Tony Kemp, Adam Frazier, Aledmys Diaz, Cavan Biggio
SS: Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed, Luis Guillorme, Amed Rosario, Brandon Crawford, Tim Anderson
3B: Gio Urshela, Luis Urias, Kyle Farmer, Abraham Toro, Brandon Drury, Jace Peterson
OF: Harrison Bader, Alex Verdugo, Randal Grichuk, Mark Canha, Manuel Margot, Jason Heyward, Jesse Winker, Michael A. Taylor, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Austin Slater, Joey Gallo, Adam Duvall, Eloy Jimenez, Ben Gamel, Edward Olivares, Travis Jankowski, Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave
RHS: Kyle Gibson, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Tomoyuki Sugano, Mike Soroka, Michael Lorenzen, Jakob Junis, Chris Flexen, Joe Ross, Colin Rea, Ross Stripling, Kyle Hendricks, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Jakob Junis, Adrian Houser
LHS: John Means, Jose Quintana, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, Martin Perez, Patrick Corbin, Alex Wood, Kyle Hart
RHR: Jose LeClerc, Tommy Kahnle, Chris Martin, Paul Sewald, Jonathan Loaisiga, Hunter Strickland, Keynan Middleton, Adam Ottavino, Buck Farmer, Luis Garcia, Andrew Kittredge, Joe Kelly, Luke Jackson, Drew Smith, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris, John Brebbia, Phil Maton, Jorge Lopez, Kendall Graveman, Jesse Chavez, Trevor Richards, Shawn Armstrong, Miguel Castro, Scott Barlow, Burch Smith, Craig Kimbrel
LHR: Aroldis Chapman, Brooks Raley, Jalen Beeks, A.J. Minter, Ryan Yarbrough, Tim Hill, Justin Wilson, Caleb Ferguson, Daniel Coulombe, T.J. McFarland, Scott Alexander, Ryan Borucki, Jake Diekman, Caleb Thielbar, Matt Moore, Will Smith